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September 28, 2004

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jb

Actually, this meshes quite well with the expectations that the development of thinking-assistant machines will allow us to become smarter (which will, in turn, allow us to produce even better thinking-assistant machines, etc, etc)

This is called in Sci-Fi (and even in real science discussions) the "Singularity" - the point at which all expectations about the future are rendered moot.

If we hit the Singularity in the next 30-70 years, I would expect that $20MM average per-capita GDP would seem quite reasonable.

Eyvind Hillblom

Pulease! Don't take it personal but this is pure nonsense.

The problem with your thinking is not the average growth numbers but the underlying growth model. You assume that GDP grows exponentially (on average) and there is absolutely no ground for that.

It may well be that the "economic literature" makes the same assumption but even so, it is an unfounded ad hoc model. And therefore useless.

The prediction is as useful as Nostradamus' ;)

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