Projections: IPCC vs Mark Bahner

Below are tables with projections for tropospheric temperature increases (relative to 1990, in degrees Celsius), CO2 emissions (Gigatons as carbon), CO2 atmospheric concentrations (ppm) and methane concentrations (ppb).  The temperatures start with 0.0 degrees Celsius in 1990, CO2 concentrations start with 354 ppm, CO2 emissions start with 6.0 Gigatons as carbon, and atmospheric methane concentrations start with 1698 ppb.

I will bet any member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that my projections are better than the IPCC projections in their Third Assessment Report (TAR).

I propose to give one point for whomever is closest on atmospheric methane concentration, 1 point for whomever is closest on CO2 emissions, 1 point for whomever is closest on CO2 atmospheric concentration, and 3 points for whomever is closest on lower tropospheric temperatures.

So there would be 6 points, awarded every decade, beginning in 2010.  The bet would be done on Long Bets, a charitable website.   In the very unlikely event of a tie at the year 2100, an extra point would be awarded to whomever is closest on the temperature in the lower troposphere in 2100.

Lower tropospheric temperatures would be as measured by satellites, with a 3-year average around the year in question.  In other words, for 1990 it would be the average of 1989, 1990, and 1991.  For 2010, it would be the average of 2009, 2010, and 2011, and so on.

I really don't expect anyone from the IPCC to take me up on this bet, because I think everyone at the IPCC knows that I would win.