Complete set of predictions: Mark Bahner vs IPCC TAR
Previously, I published my predictions for lower tropospheric temperature increases, CO2 concentrations (ppm), industrial CO2 emissions (Gt as carbon), and methane atmospheric concentrations (ppb) versus those in the IPCC TAR. Those previously published values were "50% probability" values.
Note: The IPCC TAR does not actually have probabilistic estimates. Such estimates would be too scientific. The way I developed the probabilistic estimates from the information in the IPCC TAR was to review a 2001 paper in Science by Wigley and Raper, and used the same basic method to develop "50% probability" for CO2 concentrations (ppm), industrial CO2 emissions (Gt as carbon), and methane atmospheric concentrations (ppb) from the IPCC TAR. However, my basically eyeballing, rather than actually calculating log-mean values as was done for temperature by Wigley and Raper.
In any case, it's possible to do the same comparson for "5% probability" values and "95% probability" values...where "5% probability" means there is a 5% chance that the value will be lower than the stated value, and "95% probability" means there a 95% chance that the value will be lower than the stated value. Here are the resultant values for my predictions versus the IPCC:
Table 1. Temperature Increase Versus the Year 1990, in Degrees Celsius.
Year |
IPCC Projections |
Mark Bahner Projections | ||||
5% Probability |
50% Probability |
95% Probability |
5% Probability |
50% Probability |
95% Probability | |
1990 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2000 |
0.09 |
0.16 |
0.21 |
0.00 |
0.08 |
0.15 |
2010 |
0.20 |
0.34 |
0.45 |
0.01 |
0.18 |
0.30 |
2020 |
0.32 |
0.55 |
0.80 |
0.02 |
0.27 |
0.50 |
2030 |
0.48 |
0.80 |
1.17 |
0.02 |
0.36 |
0.75 |
2040 |
0.62 |
1.10 |
1.60 |
0.02 |
0.46 |
0.95 |
2050 |
0.85 |
1.42 |
2.25 |
0.02 |
0.58 |
1.20 |
2060 |
1.05 |
1.75 |
2.75 |
0.02 |
0.70 |
1.50 |
2070 |
1.29 |
2.17 |
3.34 |
0.02 |
0.82 |
1.75 |
2080 |
1.43 |
2.45 |
3.90 |
0.02 |
0.94 |
2.00 |
2090 |
1.54 |
2.70 |
4.40 |
0.02 |
1.05 |
2.25 |
2100 |
1.68 |
3.06 |
4.87 |
0.02 |
1.20 |
2.45 |
Table 2. Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, ppm.
Year |
IPCC Projections |
Mark Bahner Projections | ||||
5% Probability |
50% Probability |
95% Probability |
5% Probability |
50% Probability |
95% Probability | |
1990 |
354 |
354 |
354 |
354 |
354 |
354 |
2000 |
365 |
369 |
373 |
365 |
369 |
373 |
2010 |
385 |
385 |
390 |
380 |
385 |
390 |
2020 |
405 |
413 |
420 |
395 |
405 |
413 |
2030 |
425 |
438 |
455 |
410 |
425 |
435 |
2040 |
455 |
470 |
500 |
420 |
455 |
464 |
2050 |
480 |
515 |
560 |
430 |
477 |
495 |
2060 |
510 |
560 |
630 |
435 |
502 |
525 |
2070 |
535 |
610 |
700 |
440 |
527 |
554 |
2080 |
550 |
645 |
780 |
440 |
542 |
583 |
2090 |
560 |
685 |
870 |
440 |
552 |
610 |
2100 |
570 |
720 |
930 |
440 |
558 |
635 |
Table 2. Industrial CO2 Emissions, Gigatonnes as Carbon.
Year |
IPCC Projections |
Mark Bahner Projections | ||||
5% Probability |
50% Probability |
95% Probability |
5% Probability |
50% Probability |
95% Probability | |
1990 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
2000 |
6.9 |
6.9 |
6.9 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
2010 |
7.8 |
8.7 |
10.0 |
6.7 |
7.4 |
|