Over on Tim Lambert's Deltoid blog, "brokenlibrarian" wrote:
"I'm still waiting for an explanation how the likelihood of the various IPCC scenarios could be determined."
I replied, "I gave you an explanation on April 15, at 9:47 PM:"
Mark Bahner versus (calculated) IPCC TAR
Alternatively, one could use the linear regression line from Hans Erren's graph of April 15, 8:42 AM as the "50% probability value":
That would produce even lower emissions.