Some responses on hurricane mitigation techniques

Jim,

You write, “I am a great fan of science fiction and someday in the distant future, suggestions like yours may be realistic,…”

If you think my suggestions—particularly the water-filled tubes as temporary storm surge barriers—are “science fiction,” then your "science fiction" is pretty tame!  (I’m thinking in particular of one of the books that had some influence on why I’m an environmental engineer today…Robert Heinlein’s “Farmer in the Sky.”  That book—about terraforming Jupiter’s moon Ganymede—was real science fiction!)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmer_in_the_Sky

“Your suggestions about reducing the strength of storms by covering or cooling the water would likely have extreme environmental consequences.”

Yes, that’s probably true.  But Hurricane Katrina alone produced 100 MILLION cubic yards of debris.  So let’s not pretend that hurricanes…especially Category 3 and higher hurricanes…don’t have extreme environmental consequences.  The real question is—or should be--“Do the adverse environmental consequences of hurricane reduction techniques exceed the adverse environmental consequences of hurricanes left at full strength?”

"Temporary hurricane walls are a logistical nightmare."

Speaking of logistical nightmares...how about this one?...

"A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York City area (Time, 1998)."

Do you think temporary hurricane walls present more of a logistical nightmare than that? 

"Where do you store them?"--->Don't know.  Every couple hundred miles along both coasts, perhaps?  Perhaps in the sea?   

"How do you deploy them?"--->Don't know.  By big ships like laying cable, maybe?

"How do you anchor them?"--->Don't know.  In my mind, they don't need anchors.

"How do you deal with rivers and streams (keeping the ocean out but allowing rivers and streams to continue draining)?"--->Don't know.  I just did a calculation (needs to be checked!) that says the entire discharge of the Mississippi River at New Orleans can discharge in a 100 square mile area, and it would only raise the level by 4 inches per 24 hours. So perhaps at New Orleans, you'd block the Mississippi River at Venice, and make your tubes go on a straight line to Pascagoula in the East, and Marsh Island in the West.  Then let the Mississippi drain into the triangle of mostly-water behind those tubes. 

"The average forecast error for 24 hours is near 70 miles in either direction. For 3 days or more, the average error is over 200 miles. If the storm is approaching the coast at an angle, the 70-mile error can translate into many hundreds of miles of coastline, making deployment impossible."

In my mind, the empty tubes are like a fire hose, in that they lie flat.  Perhaps ~500 miles of empty tubes could be deployed along the coast, and only sections where the hurricane is just about to come ashore would be filled with water?  I agree that deployment might be "extremely different" or "extremely costly." 

"There are many more reasons, costs and complications involved, but here is one that you might not have anticipated. Lawyers! If the hurricane hits 'naturally' there is little that lawyers can do. If humans have any effect on a hurricane, real or alleged, the lawsuits will fly faster than the storm winds."

So we let society be held hostage by lawyers?  We don't deploy systems that could save literally hundreds of billions of dollars, simply because lawyers would sue?  Wouldn't it make more sense to pass laws forbidding lawsuits for deployment of the systems?  Or perhaps have the federal government pay compensation for potential damages caused by deployment?

"I hate to be a spoil-sport, but the most cost effective and realistic mitigation of hurricanes remains in building, planning and insurance."

Well, I also hate to be a spoil-sport, but I don’t think you’ve spent even 4 hours thinking about what is “most cost effective and realistic.”  I have the same sort of questions for you that I had for Judith Curry:

1)  In the last 20 years, what has the damage from storm surge averaged in the United States?

2)  In the 2040-2060 period, what do you expect the damage from storm surge to average without any of the measures you advocate?

3)  In the 2040-2060 period, what do you expect the damage from storm surge to average with the measures you advocate?

4)  What do you think is the cost of the measures you advocate?

If you can’t answer these basic questions (and I’m almost certain you can’t, because I doubt you’ve put in any time to studying the matter) than I don't think you can say what is the "most cost effective and realistic mitigation of hurricanes."

Best wishes,

Mark

P.S.  I freely admit that I can't answer those questions for *my* potential solution, either.  But I've never made the claim that, for example, water-filled tubes *will* be a cost-effective solution.  I just think they *may* be, and are definitely worth more study than you (or I, or anyone I know of) have put into them.