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August 19, 2012

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Mark Bahner

I wrote, "There is no trend that can be extended even 4 years into the future, let alone 400."

"Jammyman" responds, "He's not extrapolating the future. He's showing why extrapolations are useless."

Bullshit. He's saying that energy growth has tracked GDP growth for the past 400 years--i.e., energy growth has grown exponentially for the past 400 years, along with economic growth--so energy growth should continue growing exponentially if economic growth continues exponentially. That's simply wrong, because energy growth in the United States has NOT been increasing exponentially for the past 400 years, as Tom Murphy claims. It stopped increasing exponentially more than 30 years ago. Tom Murphy doesn't tell the reader that.

"And you have missed his point completely."

No, I know his point completely, and it's nonsense. He says the world economy can't continue to grow exponentially forever. But that's wrong, and he even *knows* it's wrong, because he doesn't ever say what he thinks the limit to economic growth is?

The current world per-capita GDP is about $10,000. Does Tom Murphy think the limit is $20,000? $40,000? $100,000? $1,000,000? More than $1,000,000?

"Sheesh."

Indeed. I guess Tom Murphy gets away with much of what he writes, because people like you don't read very carefully.

P.S. If you really think what you write has merit, why do you comment with a fake name?

Jammyman

"There is no trend that can be extended even 4 years into the future, let alone 400."

That is *exactly* Tom Murphy's point.

He's not extrapolating the future. He's showing why extrapolations are useless.

And you have missed his point completely.

Sheesh.

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