« Free money offer to Tim Lambert! | Main | A $7 Billion Solution for Iraq »

September 28, 2004



Actually, this meshes quite well with the expectations that the development of thinking-assistant machines will allow us to become smarter (which will, in turn, allow us to produce even better thinking-assistant machines, etc, etc)

This is called in Sci-Fi (and even in real science discussions) the "Singularity" - the point at which all expectations about the future are rendered moot.

If we hit the Singularity in the next 30-70 years, I would expect that $20MM average per-capita GDP would seem quite reasonable.

Eyvind Hillblom

Pulease! Don't take it personal but this is pure nonsense.

The problem with your thinking is not the average growth numbers but the underlying growth model. You assume that GDP grows exponentially (on average) and there is absolutely no ground for that.

It may well be that the "economic literature" makes the same assumption but even so, it is an unfounded ad hoc model. And therefore useless.

The prediction is as useful as Nostradamus' ;)

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.


Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

May 2024

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  
Blog powered by Typepad