Complete set of predictions: Mark Bahner vs IPCC TAR

Previously, I published my predictions for lower tropospheric temperature increases, CO2 concentrations (ppm), industrial CO2 emissions (Gt as carbon), and methane atmospheric concentrations (ppb) versus those in the IPCC TAR.  Those previously published values were "50% probability" values. 

Note:  The IPCC TAR does not actually have probabilistic estimates.  Such estimates would be too scientific.  The way I developed the probabilistic estimates from the information in the IPCC TAR was to review a 2001 paper in Science by Wigley and Raper, and used the same basic method to develop "50% probability" for CO2 concentrations (ppm), industrial CO2 emissions (Gt as carbon), and methane atmospheric concentrations (ppb) from the IPCC TAR.  However, my basically eyeballing, rather than actually calculating log-mean values as was done for temperature by Wigley and Raper.

In any case, it's possible to do the same comparson for "5% probability" values and "95% probability" values...where "5% probability" means there is a 5% chance that the value will be lower than the stated value, and "95% probability" means there a 95% chance that the value will be lower than the stated value.  Here are the resultant values for my predictions versus the IPCC:

Table 1.  Temperature Increase Versus the Year 1990, in Degrees Celsius.

Year	IPCC Projections			Mark Bahner Projections
	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability
1990	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2000	0.09	0.16	0.21	0.00	0.08	0.15
2010	0.20	0.34	0.45	0.01	0.18	0.30
2020	0.32	0.55	0.80	0.02	0.27	0.50
2030	0.48	0.80	1.17	0.02	0.36	0.75
2040	0.62	1.10	1.60	0.02	0.46	0.95
2050	0.85	1.42	2.25	0.02	0.58	1.20
2060	1.05	1.75	2.75	0.02	0.70	1.50
2070	1.29	2.17	3.34	0.02	0.82	1.75
2080	1.43	2.45	3.90	0.02	0.94	2.00
2090	1.54	2.70	4.40	0.02	1.05	2.25
2100	1.68	3.06	4.87	0.02	1.20	2.45

Table 2.  Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, ppm.

Year	IPCC Projections			Mark Bahner Projections
	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability
1990	354	354	354	354	354	354
2000	365	369	373	365	369	373
2010	385	385	390	380	385	390
2020	405	413	420	395	405	413
2030	425	438	455	410	425	435
2040	455	470	500	420	455	464
2050	480	515	560	430	477	495
2060	510	560	630	435	502	525
2070	535	610	700	440	527	554
2080	550	645	780	440	542	583
2090	560	685	870	440	552	610
2100	570	720	930	440	558	635

Table 2.  Industrial CO2 Emissions, Gigatonnes as Carbon.

Year	IPCC Projections			Mark Bahner Projections
	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability
1990	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
2000	6.9	6.9	6.9	6.6	6.7	6.9
2010	7.8	8.7	10.0	6.7	7.4	8.3
2020	8.0	10.3	14.2	7.0	8.6	10.0
2030	8.7	13.2	18.8	6.5	8.8	11.5
2040	9.2	14.9	22.0	5.8	8.7	12.0
2050	8.7	16.0	26.0	5.0	8.3	12.2
2060	7.8	16.0	27.7	4.0	7.8	11.5
2070	6.6	16.4	29.5	3.2	7.0	11.5
2080	5.7	16.4	31.3	2.4	6.0	11.0
2090	4.6	17.1	33.5	1.7	5.0	10.5
2100	4.4	16.4	35.6	1.0	4.0	10.0

Table 4.  Atmospheric Methane Concentrations, ppb.

Year	IPCC Projections			Mark Bahner Projections
	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability	5% Probability	50% Probability	95% Probability
1990	1688	1698	1708	1688	1698	1708
2000	1755	1770	1785	1755	1760	1785
2010	1838	1864	1892	1725	1770	1825
2020	1903	1950	2020	1695	1780	1865
2030	1950	2060	2200	1660	1790	1900
2040	1940	2120	2360	1630	1800	1935
2050	1920	2200	2620	1600	1810	1965
2060	1890	2250	2820	1570	1820	2000
2070	1830	2300	3000	1540	1825	2030
2080	1780	2350	3150	1510	1830	2060
2090	1710	2400	3300	1480	1835	2090
2100	1650	2450	3600	1450	1840	2120