The Energy Information Administration has a long and sorry history of underestimating the growth of renewable energy in the U.S. I think their AEO (Annual Energy Outlook) in 2019 is no different. On a somewhat-related note, the folks at the Watts Up With That website seem to be hung up on the fantasy that coal-fired electric power will remain at the levels projected by the EIA. They also dream of a nuclear power revival in the U.S...or even that nuclear power won't fade to nearly nothing in the U.S. in the next 3 decades. (Don't get me wrong...I like to dream about liquid fluoride thorium reactors myself...but I know it's a dream at least for the next 2-3 decades.)
Here is a table that contains energy consumption in quads (quadrillion Btu) in the U.S. in 2017, and then projected for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2070. There are values from the the EIA AEO 2019, and values from me (MAB).
There are many significant differences between the EIA projections and mine. Here's a list, in rough order of importance:
1) I think the EIA once again blows their "Other Renewable Energy" projections, big-time. They have Other Renewable Energy (i.e. photovoltaics and wind) only increasing from 3 quads to 9 quads from 2017 to 2050. My projection is 3 quads to 42 quads from 2017 to 2050. In particular, I predict an explosion in photovoltaic electricity production.
2) The EIA only has coal dropping from 14 quads in 2017 to 11 quads in 2050. I predict coal will be at 2 quads in 2050. I expect more than 90 percent of the utility coal-fired power plants that were operating in 2017 to be closed by 2050.
3) The EIA has nuclear power only dropping from 8 quads in 2017 to 7 quads in 2050. Presumably they expect virtually all the nuclear plants operating in the U.S. in 2017 to still be operating in 2050. I think that's insane. Many of those plants would be over 70 years old!
4) The EIA predicts virtually no drop in oil consumption from 2017 to 2050. I predict a drop of 36 percent, as the transportation system becomes electrified (with battery operated cars, buses, and many trucks).
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