I still don't get it though. If the construction cost of 2 nuclear reactors is 27 billion and, if that translates to $80/MWH. Why doesn't the 2 billion in waste disposal for the two reactors translate to $6/MWH?
Where to start?
1) It doesn't make much difference to this particular situation, but the construction cost of $27 billion for the two Vogtle reactors does not "translate to $80/MWh". The $80/MWh is from a completely separate situation...it comes from a generic "desktop" study...not a study specific to the two new Vogtle reactors. The $27 billion for the Vogtle reactors will probably translate to over $100/MWh, even if the two reactors are completed and operated for 40 years. And the cost per MWh could even be infinite if the two Vogtle reactors never generate a single megawatt (which is a possibility).
2) The $2 billion is a number from "thedonster," not from me. The $2 billion number is based on a value of $1 billion for a "nuclear power plant" (not a "nuclear reactor") from "enoch arden." Neither "thedonster" nor "enoch arden" have ever presented any evidence that they have any knowledge of nuclear power, including the economics of nuclear power. In fact, "enoch arden" has demonstrated repeatedly that he is clueless.
3) So what would someone who actually knows something about nuclear power estimate the decommissioning cost to be for two nuclear reactors of the size of the two Vogtle reactors (roughly 1120 MW each) in the year 2020?
Well, here is a website that has the following:
https://www.world-nuclear.o...
An OECD Nuclear Energy Agency survey published in 2016 reported US dollar (2013) costs in response to a wide survey. For US reactors the expected total decommissioning costs range from $544 to $821 million; for units over 1100 MWe the costs ranged from $0.46 to $0.73 million per MWe, for units half that size, costs ranged from $1.07 to $1.22 million per MWe.
If the cost for units over 1100 MWe is $0.46 to $0.73 million per MWe (in 2013 dollars), the decommissioning cost for each Vogtle reactor would range from $515 million to $818 million. That's in 2013 dollars. Using the consumer price index (CPI) to adjust for inflation (not valid, but convenient ;-))...the cost in December 2019 would increase to $575 million to $913 million per reactor. So for two reactors, the December 2019 cost would be approximately $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion.
4) So now we just compare the $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion to the current estimated cost of $27 billion, to come up with 4.4% to 6.7% of the LCOE will be from decommissioning, right? No, that's wrong. The decommissioning probably won't come until after many years of operation. For example, the average reactor in the U.S. is currently about 38 years old. The present value of a future cost is much less, because money can be placed in escrow, earning interest, to pay for the future costs.
5) For example, let's escalate the cost of decommissioning the two Vogtle reactors 50 years into the future, based on the CPI of the last 50 years. (Again, that's not valid, but it's convenient.):
https://www.bls.gov/data/in...
Therefore, the cost of decommissioning the two reactors combined increases from $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion in December 2019 dollars to $8.2 billion to $12.3 billion in 2070.
6) How much would have to be set aside in December 2019 to have $8.2 to $12.3 billion in 2070? Let's assume we invest in the S&P 500 (and re-invest dividends) and the returns of the next 50 years are like the last 50 years:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-re...
The returns, not adjusted for inflation, from December 1969 to December 2019 are 14550%. In other words, $1.2 billion invested in the SP 500, with dividend re-investment, in 1969 would have produced $175 billion in 2019. So we only need $8.2 billion (in year 2070 dollars), but we have $175 billion (in year 2070. So to get a fund of $8.2 billion to $12.3 billion in 2070, if the SP 500 returns continue for the next 50 years like the past 50, we'd only have to invest $56 million to $85 million in 2019.
7) Of course, all these numbers are simply illustrative, based on data from the last 50 years. But it is important to note that nuclear power plants typically obtain money for decommissioning by charging 0.1 to 0.2 cents per kWh.
Where to start?
1) It doesn't make much difference to this particular situation, but the construction cost of $27 billion for the two Vogtle reactors does not "translate to $80/MWh". The $80/MWh is from a completely separate situation...it comes from a generic "desktop" study...not a study specific to the two new Vogtle reactors. The $27 billion for the Vogtle reactors will probably translate to over $100/MWh, even if the two reactors are completed and operated for 40 years. And the cost per MWh could even be infinite if the two Vogtle reactors never generate a single megawatt (which is a possibility).
2) The $2 billion is a number from "thedonster," not from me. The $2 billion number is based on a value of $1 billion for a "nuclear power plant" (not a "nuclear reactor") from "enoch arden." Neither "thedonster" nor "enoch arden" have ever presented any evidence that they have any knowledge of nuclear power, including the economics of nuclear power. In fact, "enoch arden" has demonstrated repeatedly that he is clueless.
3) So what would someone who actually knows something about nuclear power estimate the decommissioning cost to be for two nuclear reactors of the size of the two Vogtle reactors (roughly 1120 MW each) in the year 2020?
Well, here is a website that has the following:
https://www.world-nuclear.o...
If the cost for units over 1100 MWe is $0.46 to $0.73 million per MWe (in 2013 dollars), the decommissioning cost for each Vogtle reactor would range from $515 million to $818 million. That's in 2013 dollars. Using the consumer price index (CPI) to adjust for inflation (not valid, but convenient ;-))...the cost in December 2019 would increase to $575 million to $913 million per reactor. So for two reactors, the December 2019 cost would be approximately $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion.
4) So now we just compare the $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion to the current estimated cost of $27 billion, to come up with 4.4% to 6.7% of the LCOE will be from decommissioning, right? No, that's wrong. The decommissioning probably won't come until after many years of operation. For example, the average reactor in the U.S. is currently about 38 years old. The present value of a future cost is much less, because money can be placed in escrow, earning interest, to pay for the future costs.
5) For example, let's escalate the cost of decommissioning the two Vogtle reactors 50 years into the future, based on the CPI of the last 50 years. (Again, that's not valid, but it's convenient.):
https://www.bls.gov/data/in...
Therefore, the cost of decommissioning the two reactors combined increases from $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion in December 2019 dollars to $8.2 billion to $12.3 billion in 2070.
6) How much would have to be set aside in December 2019 to have $8.2 to $12.3 billion in 2070? Let's assume we invest in the S&P 500 (and re-invest dividends) and the returns of the next 50 years are like the last 50 years:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-re...
The returns, not adjusted for inflation, from December 1969 to December 2019 are 14550%. In other words, $1.2 billion invested in the SP 500, with dividend re-investment, in 1969 would have produced $175 billion in 2019. So we only need $8.2 billion (in year 2070 dollars), but we have $175 billion (in year 2070. So to get a fund of $8.2 billion to $12.3 billion in 2070, if the SP 500 returns continue for the next 50 years like the past 50, we'd only have to invest $56 million to $85 million in 2019.
7) Of course, all these numbers are simply illustrative, based on data from the last 50 years. But it is important to note that nuclear power plants typically obtain money for decommissioning by charging 0.1 to 0.2 cents per kWh.