Responding to comments from Ray Lopez on Marginal Revolution:
"Green energy is a First World fad, you realize that?"
Green energy is a "First World fad" about like LED TVs are "First World fad". Just what do you think Africa is going to power up with in the next 30+ years? (Hint: Think solar, solar, and solar. And if you think it will be nuclear, you need to go talk to people who actually know what they're talking about!)
"Jevons and the Coal Question, bone up on that and get back to us."
I have a better idea...you give me your predictions for global nuclear power production (in terawatt-hours, or TWh, for these years):
2018: 2586 TWh (from this wonderful Wikipedia page):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_by_country
2030: ???
2040: ???
2050: ???
Just FYI, here are my predictions:
2030: 2700 TWh
2040: 2100 TWh
2050: 1800 TWh
And then tell me which countries are going to be the biggest generators of nuclear power in 2050.
Here is my prediction: Of the 1800 TWh of nuclear power generated in 2050--down from 2586 TWh in 2018--more than 60 percent will be generated in China, India, and Russia, combined. And less than 5 percent will be from the entire continent of Africa.
"The only solution long term is nuclear (for the world,..."
I think that's absolute nonsense, of course (see my previous predictions). But then again, I've only been studying energy issues throughout my entire advanced academic and professional life.
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