Roger Pielke Jr. posted an analysis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) predictions of global use of fossil fuels from 2023-2050, versus the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Energy Outlook (IEO) for the same time period. The fossil fuels under consideration were coal, oil, and natural gas, and the units of use are exajoules.
The IEA WEO 2023 predicted global use of each of the three fossil fuels would peak before 2030, and the IEA WEO 2023 predicted that global coal use in particular would decline significantly by 2050, to a value of approximately 60 percent (i.e., 0.60 times) the value in 2023.
In contrast, the U.S. EIA IEO 2023 predicted that global use of all three fossil fuels would increase to 2050. For example, if the values for EIA IEO 2023 values for coal, oil, and natural gas are taken as a value of 1.00 in 2050, the values for coal, oil, and natural gas in 2023 would be 0.96, 0.85, and 0.79, respectively.
I decided to develop my own predictions for global use of coal, oil, and natural gas from 2023 to 2050, and compare them to the IEA WEO 2023 and the EIA IEO 2023.
With respect to coal, I also think global use will "peak" prior to 2030, but I think global use during the entire period will be essentially flat, so it will be difficult until very near the end of the period to determine whether a peak has truly occurred. I predict the "peak" coal will occur in 2029, but if that peak has a value of 1.00, I predict that the value in 2023
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